Global Tension and Nervous Markets – A Mid-November 2025 Snapshot
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Japan has suggested that a possible conflict around Taiwan could be treated as a “situation that threatens Japan’s survival.”
Under Japanese law, this definition would allow Japan to provide military support to friendly countries in such a crisis. China reacted strongly. Beijing accused Japan of interfering in China’s internal affairs and demanded that Tokyo take back these comments.
Japan replied that its position is in line with its long-standing security policy and is not something new. At the same time, China plans to extend its ban on imports of Japanese seafood. This has added another source of tension to already difficult China–Japan relations.
China’s Falling Food Prices – A Hidden Warning
While most major economies are still struggling with high food inflation, China is moving in the opposite direction. Food prices in China are falling, and there are three main reasons:
China’s Falling Food Prices – A Hidden Warning
While most major economies are still struggling with high food inflation, China is moving in the opposite direction. Food prices in China are falling, and there are three main reasons:
Too much pork production
Abundant agricultural output in general
Weaker consumer demand, as people are buying less
This combination is putting downward pressure on prices, creating a kind of negative inflation (deflation) in parts of China’s economy. In the short term, cheaper food may feel like good news for households. But from a broader economic perspective, it is a serious warning sign.
Deflation can:
reduce company profits
discourage new investment
and eventually slow down economic growth in China.
Rising tensions between China and Japan on security and trade can also push Asian markets into a more risk-off mood, especially for regional currencies and stock markets.
Japan’s Shrinking Economy vs. America’s Expansion
From 2000 to 2025, Japan’s economy has actually shrunk by around 600 billion dollars.
In the same 25-year period, the U.S. economy has tripled in size. Japan has fallen from being the world’s second-largest economy to the fourth-largest. And with India’s fast growth and relatively small gap now, Japan is likely to be overtaken soon and fall to fifth place in the global ranking. This long-term stagnation is an important background to Japan’s current security concerns and regional role.
Japan’s Shrinking Economy vs. America’s Expansion
From 2000 to 2025, Japan’s economy has actually shrunk by around 600 billion dollars.
In the same 25-year period, the U.S. economy has tripled in size. Japan has fallen from being the world’s second-largest economy to the fourth-largest. And with India’s fast growth and relatively small gap now, Japan is likely to be overtaken soon and fall to fifth place in the global ranking. This long-term stagnation is an important background to Japan’s current security concerns and regional role.
Venezuela: Troops, Oil, and a Last Warning for Maduro
Near Venezuela, the United States now has around 15,000 mobilized troops and an aircraft carrier positioned off the coast. This means that Donald Trump is only one major decision away from a possible intervention.According to this scenario, Nicolás Maduro may be facing his “last ultimatum” to leave power. If he does not step down, he could face what some call a “Noriega scenario” – a reference to Panama’s former leader Manuel Noriega:
Venezuela: Troops, Oil, and a Last Warning for Maduro
Near Venezuela, the United States now has around 15,000 mobilized troops and an aircraft carrier positioned off the coast. This means that Donald Trump is only one major decision away from a possible intervention.According to this scenario, Nicolás Maduro may be facing his “last ultimatum” to leave power. If he does not step down, he could face what some call a “Noriega scenario” – a reference to Panama’s former leader Manuel Noriega:
arrest,
extradition to the United States,
and the destruction of much of his military capability.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and was once one of the biggest oil exporters.
However, after years of U.S. sanctions, Venezuela’s share of global oil exports has dropped to less than 1%. This mix of geopolitical tension, military signals, and huge untapped oil resources makes Venezuela a key hotspot in global politics and energy markets.
Bank of America has issued a warning about dangerously low levels of cash (liquidity) in investment funds. In its latest fund manager survey, the bank shared a chart that stands out:
the average cash level in funds has fallen to around 3.7% or lower. This is important because:
Since 2002, cash levels at 3.7% or below have happened only about 20 times.
In every one of those cases, the stock market fell over the next 1 to 3 months,
and U.S. Treasuries (government bonds) performed better than stocks.
In simple terms:
funds are now holding very little cash, which often means they are fully invested and highly optimistic. Historically, this kind of situation has often been followed by a market correction. AI Euphoria Cools… But Google’s Gemini 3 Raises the Bar Recently, markets have started to question the huge AI rally.
Some investors are asking whether AI-related stocks, especially in the U.S., have gone too far too fast. But at the same time, Google has released a powerful new model called Gemini 3, which has renewed excitement in the AI space. Google also sent an important strategic signal: it showed that it does not necessarily need Nvidia to push forward in AI — and this might be just the beginning of a new competitive phase in the industry.
Gemini 3 can:
create high-quality infographics,
generate slides and presentations,
work with up to 14 different images or five different characters,
and keep the characters consistent across all the generated content.
This means AI is moving from just “chatting and coding” to serious content production for design, marketing, and storytelling.
Powell’s Press Conference: The Peak of Risk-On Sentiment
The latest press conference by Jerome Powell, the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, marked a turning point in market sentiment. Until that moment, markets were very “risk-on” — investors were optimistic, buying stocks and other risky assets, and expecting rate cuts soon.
But Powell’s key sentence changed the mood:
“A rate cut in December is not a certainty; in fact, it is very unlikely.”
With this one line, he pushed back against expectations of quick and easy rate cuts.
After his comments:
markets adjusted their expectations,
investors started to price in a more hawkish (tighter) policy path,
and risk appetite in global markets cooled down.
In short, Powell reminded everyone that the fight against inflation is not over yet, and that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates.
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