War for Peace!
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Diplomatic balances are also shifting toward instability as economic equilibriums become increasingly fragile. Since the existing order is becoming destabilized, the interests and expenditures of countries are being redefined once again.
The Middle East is on the brink of ignition and chaos. New intelligence assessments by U.S. officials indicate that a team of Iranian scientists is secretly investigating rapid methods for developing nuclear weapons. If the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran decides, they are prepared to use these weapons. In response to this threat, the U.S. has requested nuclear oversight. It has always been the stance of the IAEA that Iran's nuclear energy activities are peaceful, and Iran will continue to uphold this view.
Additionally, Iran is reportedly receiving missile fuel from China. By early 2025, Tehran is expected to enhance its power. There is also speculation that Iran may assist Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is a possibility that Turkey's role in southern Syria could reduce Israeli influence. Israel recently attacked Syrian bases in early April, which Turkey was considering for potential future deployments.
Maximum Pressure Reloaded: U.S. Plans to Corner Iran Through Oil and Diplomacy
From the U.S. perspective, this regime is extremely problematic, and unless a change occurs, the problem cannot be resolved. The aim of this change is to reach a final settlement where hostilities cease, relations reopen, and the U.S. Embassy returns to Tehran. However, achieving this will come at a high cost: either through a new, long-term agreement or by attacking Iran. Israel, too, intends to pass a resolution to strike Iran's nuclear bases by the end of April. Israel’s military plans to neutralize Hamas first and then isolate the region, with full support from the U.S., in order to pave the way for Trump's return. Ultimately, Trump also wants to organize a major regional celebration after a final agreement is signed. Trump also added: “We should immediately focus on this issue, and once we sign the agreement, let’s hold a big Middle East celebration. God bless the Middle East!”
Trump and the U.S. initially plan to impose several strategies to further weaken Iran, especially economically. The Trump administration has enacted new sanctions targeting Iran’s shipping, oil, and energy sectors. These sanctions specifically target Iran's oil transport plan and inspection of Iranian tankers at sea. This move is part of the "Maximum Pressure" policy intended to block Iran's oil exports. Additionally, the U.S. is pursuing countries that may serve as alternative routes for Iranian oil exports. The tensions in strategic maritime zones and ports are being closely monitored to intercept suspicious ships. This lack of assurance in trade networks may have a lasting impact on international commerce.
With intelligent arguments and the recent decline in oil prices, the groundwork for implementing such measures appears to be in place.
However, the geopolitical consequences and international reactions to this plan remain unclear, especially in the short term, where Iran could find itself under intense military pressure. Iran’s potential to disrupt the Persian Gulf is a serious concern. The U.S. National Security Council is currently reviewing maritime inspections under the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) to block the transport of weapons by sea. A similar pattern of enemy mobilization had been observed before the Iraq war and prior to the attack on Iraq.
In early February, just days after the U.S. presidential inauguration, Donald Trump issued new orders to increase pressure on Iran. The U.S. Department of Treasury has sanctioned an international network responsible for transferring millions of barrels of Iranian oil, including individuals and companies around the world, particularly from China. According to Treasury Department details, these actions were part of a larger campaign to curb Iran’s oil revenue.
India and the United Arab Emirates have also been included. These measures were taken with the goal of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero. Moreover, the U.S. government has asked Iraq to quickly halt oil exports from the Kurdistan region. Otherwise, Iraq could face similar sanctions. The U.S. believes that selling Kurdish oil can help lower oil prices and offset Iran’s reduced oil supply.
The territorial conflict between the Palestinians and Israel continues. Saudi Arabia has reiterated its stance in an official statement, emphasizing that the formation of a stable and irreversible Palestinian state is non-negotiable, and any effort to displace Palestinians from their land is unacceptable. However, the question remains: why does the land of Palestine still pose such a controversial issue after all these decades? The reason lies in the scattered Palestinian population. Over the past few decades, many Palestinians have fled this area, but a significant number—about 4 to 5 million—still live in other countries such as Jordan (more than half of whom are Palestinian), Syria, and Lebanon, which keeps tensions alive.
Meanwhile, Trump has reportedly said: “I am committed to buying and owning Gaza.” This shocking statement raises further questions: does he intend to rebuild Gaza or to divide it among other Middle Eastern countries? Is this a diplomatic deception, allowing others to sit back while Israel annexes this part of land and comfortably secures U.S. interests?
Arms, Influence, and the Future of Europe: The Shifting Power Balance in the Ukraine Conflict
The situation in Europe—particularly the war in Ukraine—continues to show escalating tensions. Putin and Russia have taken the first steps with bold ambitions to reshape the global order in their favor, seeking to take full control of Ukrainian territory. Putin shows no interest in a peace agreement and believes he can win the war and dominate Ukraine entirely. U.S. intelligence and congressional sources have confirmed that there is no sign of real willingness from Putin to pursue peace. He also reportedly aims to bring all of Ukraine under his control.
The U.S. and Trump are extending sanctions against Russia for another year. This indicates that, based on the perceived U.S. assessment, Russia’s willingness for progress, negotiations, or even minimal de-escalation is not expected to improve by the end of this year.
Trump intends to issue a new executive order to revise laws and regulations that restrict U.S. arms exports to other countries. This would increase American arms exports and benefit domestic arms manufacturers. Through this policy, the U.S. aims to strengthen its geopolitical influence. The facilitation of arms sales to allies would also serve as an economic response to reduced exports in other sectors that have come under pressure from tariffs and trade wars.
However, this shift may trigger rising tensions with international human rights organizations. Rival nations such as Russia and China may interpret this policy as a regional power play, potentially sparking more weapons disputes with countries in the Middle East, Asia, and beyond.
One law—passed under Biden’s administration—restricted arms sales to countries that might use them on civilian populations or foreign soil. Trump is expected to repeal this law, enabling deeper arms deployments into Ukraine and other zones. If this policy shift occurs, it could provide military, economic, and energy-related support to Ukraine. In that case, if a Ukraine deal is reached, energy-rich zones may fall under American influence.
In exchange for U.S. aid to Ukraine, Trump has requested that America receive rare earth elements from Kyiv. These elements include dysprosium, neodymium, and samarium—classified as strategic metals—which are critical for producing computer chips, batteries, and advanced energy technologies. These elements are part of the group of 17 rare earth elements, most of which (60%) are currently controlled by Russia and are located in eastern Ukrainian regions now occupied by Russian forces.
Europe, on the other hand, is increasingly aware that the U.S. may no longer bear the burden of defense costs alone and that a new balance of power and defense against potential Russian aggression is required. In this context, Germany has also emphasized the need to increase defense spending.
A €500 billion European fund is planned for infrastructure development. Investment in defense and infrastructure could raise inflation but is expected to indirectly boost long-term industrial growth. While the public cost burden in Germany may spill over into other EU countries, its effects may not be fully felt until 2026. If the U.S. no longer stands firmly beside Europe, France may seek to expand its nuclear deterrent capabilities to support EU allies. However, the final decision on the French nuclear arsenal remains in the hands of the President of France. In other words, France wants to be the leadership of Europe.
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