Despite all the geopolitical tensions and trade war discussions, gold remains the only asset that has "blossomed" in the market. Gold is trading near the $3,000 range and is no longer influenced by fears of tariffs. Recently, gold broke through a major resistance level—a level that had not been crossed even during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. While gold hovered around $2,000 for a long time, it has now begun a true upward trend for the first time in years.

Gold continues to be the "blossoming" asset until a time comes when government debts are brought under control. Gold is attractive today not because of political risk, but because of the lack of security in currencies. Investors are seeking safe havens—and gold is one of them. Markets are no longer focused on the dollar but on gold. As long as the Federal Reserve does not change its policy and stance, the upward trend will likely continue. In this environment, real yields (adjusted for inflation) will decline unless a strong economic growth shock occurs—but short-term corrections are still possible.

Many of the world’s largest economies today are grappling with high levels of sovereign debt. Countries such as Japan, the United States, and Italy stand out due to their elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, which have placed significant strain on their national budgets. These imbalances are often the result of aging populations, rising healthcare and pension costs, and persistent structural deficits.
These nations face mounting pressure to maintain fiscal credibility while supporting economic growth. In contrast, several emerging economies like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia have managed to maintain lower debt levels relative to GDP, placing them in a comparatively more stable financial position. Their more favorable debt profiles allow them greater flexibility in policy and reduce the urgency for dramatic structural adjustments.

Moving toward fiscal sustainability requires a well-defined roadmap. A widely accepted benchmark is to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to approximately 80%—a threshold seen as compatible with long-term financial health and investor confidence. However, achieving this target demands more than temporary budget cuts. It requires comprehensive structural reforms that span tax policy, public sector efficiency, and investment in innovation. Nations must implement cost-saving measures, pursue tax reforms to broaden the revenue base, and create environments conducive to sustainable economic growth. Importantly, these reforms must be carefully designed to avoid social unrest or political paralysis. Governments often struggle to strike the balance between fiscal consolidation and public acceptance, especially in times of economic uncertainty or political polarization.

Trump envisions a broader deal and ultimately seeks a more comprehensive agreement with China—one that may even include nuclear arms. However, it’s still unclear exactly what Trump wants from China in this regard. What is clear is that he wishes to review nuclear arms regulations to ensure both nations remain secure and avoid direct conflict. In essence, Trump is not merely pursuing a financial deal—he is focused on achieving a strategic equilibrium rooted in security.
It is evident that the interests of both nations are at their peak level of confrontation.